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Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total over/under picks and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Seattle Seahawks. Be sure to check out our Atlanta Falcons preview.
2021 Record: 7-10 (4th in NFC West)
A new era is beginning in Seattle this season. On the heels of a disappointing 2021-22 campaign, the team traded star QB Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. As part of that trade, the Seahawks did add Drew Lock to a group that also features Geno Smith and Jacob Eason. Clearly, Seattle is banking on Lock to reach a ceiling he was incapable of touching in Denver, just one season after Wilson registered his lowest QBR in Seattle.
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Setting that transaction aside, not a lot has changed with a Seattle team that before last season hadn’t posted a losing record since 2011-12. They still return strong options in the backfield and in a receiving corps that, barring a holdout, features D.K. Metcalf. So, although the loss of a future Hall of Famer could leave a mark in arguably the toughest division in football, there’s a case for optimism, especially considering Seattle has $16 million in cap space.
Seahawks offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
Week 2: at San Francisco 49ers
Week 5: at New Orleans Saints
Week 7: at Los Angeles Chargers
Week 8: vs. New York Giants
Week 10: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 12: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Week 13: at Los Angeles Rams
Week 15: vs. San Francisco 49ers
Week 16: at Kansas City Chiefs
Week 17: vs. New York Jets
Week 18: vs. Los Angeles Rams
I want to believe the Seahawks aren’t as bad as their 5.5-win total projects.
The fact remains that Seattle – Wilson aside – will return a lot of key pieces that saw them win seven games last season. Running backs Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson combined to lead the Seahawks’ ground game to the sixth-best rushing DVOA last season, per footballoutsiders.com.
Carson was released and later retired, but rookie Kenneth Walker III is primed to step in and form a strong 1-2 punch with Penny, turning Lock into a “game manager.” However, the way the schedule sets up, I don’t know if that’s an option.
Of their 17 opponents, 11 ranked in the top-half defensively against the run last season. Seven of those 11 games come against teams that rank sixth or better in that same category.
Now, they likely won’t lose all seven of those games – six come against divisional opponents, and I expect the Seahawks can steal at least a game or two – but this team’s path to over 5.5 wins gets a lot narrower.
Barring a complete surprise, I certainly expect some regression in the passing department – Seattle ranked eighth last season in passing DVOA. And given it ranked as a bottom-half defensive team last season, there are a lot of lingering questions.
All that said, there are winnable games on this schedule. Home games against the Falcons, Giants, Panthers, and Jets look like games that could go the Seahawks’ way. If Seattle can win two divisional games, that puts them in a good position to get over its win total.
But, a price of -130 on the over is simply too much to lay with what many perceive to be a below-average team. I lean to the over, but would be looking for a price of -110 or -115.
LEAN Over 5.5 Wins (Play at -115 or better)
There’s a bit of betting calculus at play for me here.
I believe the Seahawks are really only capable of winning one of their first two games. That’s the opener against the Broncos – and a returning Russell Wilson – where Seattle is a 4.5-point underdog. However, the expectation should be that Wilson – who arguably knows this Seattle defense better than anyone – will exploit that knowledge and get the win.
Then the Seahawks travel to San Francisco. The 49ers actually lost both games against Seattle last season, but without an actual passing threat, expect a stout San Francisco run defense to limit the Seahawks’ offense and win that game.
That brings us to Week 3 against the Falcons. In my opinion, Atlanta is a slightly worse version of the Seahawks. They lack explosion at the skill positions and possess a relatively inexperienced head coach. Further, their run defense can really be exploited.
As a result, Seattle should be able to stick to its preferred game plan and use home-field advantage to capture their first win of the season against the Falcons. The +180 on Week 1 is tempting, but take the extra 20 cents and back this prop at Fanduel Sportsbook.